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Here is the bad news for those drivers aiming to dethrone two-time defending Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson: Johnson's 2008 is looking a lot like his championship winning 2007 -- only better.
Johnson, the current series points leader, got hot at the exact same time this year as he did last year. Take a look at the five-race stretch from Fontana (Race 25) through Kansas (Race 29) this year, and last:
| Track | Finish | Avg. Run. Pos. | Fast Laps Run | Pct. Laps/Top 15 | Driver Rating | Led |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fontana | 1 | 1.2 | 133 | 100 | 150.0* | 228 |
| Richmond | 1 | 6.3 | 19 | 97 | 120.4 | 32 |
| New Hampshire | 2 | 2.4 | 60 | 99.3 | 134.8 | 96 |
| Dover | 5 | 7.0 | 20 | 93 | 112.9 | 81 |
| Kansas | 1 | 2.2 | 69 | 99.3 | 145.6 | 124 |
| Total/Avg. | 2.0 | 3.8 | 301 | 97.7 | 132.7 | 561 |
| Track | Finish | Avg. Run. Pos. | Fast Laps Run | Pct. Laps/Top 15 | Driver Rating | Led |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fontana | 1 | 4.2 | 40 | 96.4 | 135.5 | 84 |
| Richmond | 1 | 2.8 | 47 | 100 | 134.1 | 104 |
| New Hampshire | 6 | 6.3 | 38 | 96.3 | 115.3 | 0 |
| Dover | 14 | 16.5 | 21 | 49.5 | 101.0 | 1 |
| Kansas | 3 | 11.7 | 13 | 69.5 | 110.9 | 1 |
| Total/Avg. | 5.0 | 8.3 | 159 | 82.3 | 119.4 | 190 |
Johnson has improved upon already impressive numbers during that five-race stretch. His Average Running Position is 4.5 positions better; he has run 142 more fast laps; his Driver Rating has increased 13.3 points; and he has led 371 more laps.
So, is there any good news for Johnson's competitors? Possibly. Talladega Superspeedway -- the site of this weekend's AMP Energy 500 -- has a way of derailing championship hopes.
In three of the four Talladega Chase races, the points lead changed hands coming out of Talladega. Only Jeff Burton in 2006 retained his lead, but it was cut severely -- from 69 points going in to six coming out.
Also, of the four previous points leaders going into the Talladega Chase race, only one went on to win the championship -- Jimmie Johnson last season.
Anything can happen at Talladega, a reason why drivers call it the "wild card" race of the Chase. Even Johnson has been affected, with two DNFs in the past seven races. Below are Johnson's stats from the past seven Talladega races:
| Date | Finish | Avg. Run. Pos. | Fast Laps Run | Pct. Laps/Top 15 | Driver Rating | Led |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2005 | 20 | 6.4 | 4 | 93.8 | 101.2 | 8 |
| Oct. 2005 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 14.2 | 45.5 | 3 |
| May 2006 | 1 | 6.2 | 1 | 97.3 | 114.9 | 3 |
| Oct. 2006 | 24 | 14 | 3 | 62.2 | 81.3 | 6 |
| April 2007 | 2 | 7.5 | 1 | 83.9 | 117.2 | 12 |
| Oct. 2007 | 2 | 27.4 | 3 | 15.4 | 78.7 | 6 |
| April 2008 | 13 | 23.4 | 3 | 22.9 | 68.2 | 1 |
| Total/Avg. | 13.3 | 16.1 | 18 | 55.9 | 86.7 | 39 |
Video
Johnson: Worried about collecting points
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| Pos. | +/- | Driver | Points | Behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | +1 | Jimmie Johnson | 5575 | -- |
| 2. | -1 | Carl Edwards | 5565 | -10 |
| 3. | -- | Greg Biffle | 5545 | -30 |
| 4. | -- | Jeff Burton | 5454 | -121 |
| 5. | -- | Kevin Harvick | 5439 | -136 |
| 6. | +2 | Jeff Gordon | 5432 | -143 |
| 7. | -1 | Clint Bowyer | 5411 | -164 |
| 8. | +1 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 5385 | -190 |
| 9. | +1 | Matt Kenseth | 5383 | -192 |
| 10. | +1 | Denny Hamlin | 5332 | -243 |
| 11. | -4 | Tony Stewart | 5320 | -255 |
| 12. | -- | Kyle Busch | 5264 | -311 |