No Margin For Error

Burton, Earnhardt Jr. have eerily similar stats at Dover

By NASCAR.COM
September 19, 2008
12:32 PM EDT

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Jeff Burton has been here before, trailing the Chase leader heading into Dover.

Inside the Numbers

Chase point standings

Rank	Driver	Points	Behind

1	C. Edwards	5,220	--
2	J. Johnson	5,220	--
3	G. Biffle	5,190	-30
4	D. Earnhardt Jr.	5,170	-50
5	J. Burton	5,170	-50
6	D. Hamlin	5,148	-72
7	T. Stewart	5,147	-73
8	Ky. Busch	5,146	-74
9	C. Bowyer	5,137	-83
10	K. Harvick	5,134	-86
11	J. Gordon	5,121	-99
12	M. Kenseth	5,043	-177

In 2006, Kevin Harvick won the opening Chase race at New Hampshire and opened up a 35-point lead over second-place Denny Hamlin, the largest ever during the Chase heading to Dover.

But Harvick finished 32nd after an engine failure while Richard Childress Racing teammate Jeff Burton, fourth in the points, won the race and moved up three spots to take the standings lead.

On the other hand, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been the hunted.

In 2004, Earnhardt was tied with Kurt Busch after the inaugural Chase race at Loudon. Junior finished ninth at Dover, fell 18 points behind and eventually finished fifth in points.

This weekend at Dover, Burton and Earnhardt are 50 points behind co-leaders Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson and have no margin for error at the Monster Mile.

However, Burton and Earnhardt have almost identical statistics at the 1-mile concrete oval:

At Dover International Speedway

Total races	17
First race	June 4, 2000
Last race	June 1, 2008

	Burton	Earnhardt Jr.

Wins	1	1
Top-5 Finishes	4	4
Top-10 Finishes	7	7
Average Finish	14.6	16.9

All Cup Series Races

Total races	318
First race	May 30, 1999, at Charlotte
Last race	Sept. 14, 2008, at Loudon

	Burton	Earnhardt Jr.

Wins	11	18
Top-5 Finishes	60	85
Top-10 Finishes	129	135
Average Finish	15.3	16.0

Recent history suggests the two may not be tied for too long:

• The past two Dover races have ended in top-10 finishes for Burton (seventh, eighth), and both times he was one lap down.

• Five of Earnhardt's past seven races at Dover have ended in finishes outside the top 10, including an early crash and 35th-place finish in June. He has led 366 laps at Dover, but just two in the last nine races there.

It's also noteworthy that Chase contenders have won all four Dover races:
• 2004 -- Ryan Newman
• 2005 -- Jimmie Johnson
• 2006 -- Jeff Burton
• 2007 -- Carl Edwards

However, no driver has won the Dover Chase race and gone on to win the championship. The last time a driver won the fall Dover race and the Cup Series title in the same season was Jeff Gordon in 1995.

In four Chase races at Dover, the highest an eventual season champion has finished was fifth: Kurt Busch in 2004.