Those at top of standings should do well at Dover

There is a reason that Dover is called the "Monster Mile" and 12 drivers learned it the hard way this spring.

The Cup Series visits one-mile tracks in back-to-back weeks, so you should be able to carry your New Hampshire Motor Speedway roster forward to Dover International Speedway, right? Wrong; the length of these two tracks are their only similarity as the 24-degree high-banked concrete course on the Mid-Atlantic seaboard is twice as steep as its asphalt counterpart in New England.

Where drivers had to tiptoe through the corners in Loudon last week, they can dive headlong into the turns at Dover and expect that the greater adhesion of the concrete and the banking will catch them. Of course, NASCAR racers will run to the ragged edge no matter what configuration they face and are just as likely to spin on the high banks as the flat tracks.

A driver may get in trouble in the turns at Dover, but he pays for it on the straightaways. Narrow stretches are walled with concrete on both sides and there is no place to hide when trouble erupts. When David Gilliland and Elliott Sadler got to pushing and shoving for the 16th position in the Best Buy 400 this spring, it left the No. 19 Dodge disabled on the backstretch and 12 cars piled in (watch video). In the blink of an eye, more than one quarter of the field had some damage to their cars, including Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Clint Bowyer. Those five drivers survived to qualify for the Chase, but another blow this weekend would be devastating to their championship hopes this early in the playoffs.

Two drivers who absolutely cannot afford a bad run are Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch, both of whom sustained crash damage last week in the Sylvania 300 and have already used up their mulligan for the Chase.

The Favorites

For every loser, there is a winner. Last week, two Roushketeers set themselves up as drivers to beat for the championship. Before the weekend began, neither Carl Edwards nor Greg Biffle was very highly valued because of their recent record at New Hampshire, but at the end of the race they could both be found at the front.

Throughout the weekend, before the green flag waved, Edwards did nothing to change fantasy owners' opinions of his odds for a good finish. He was consistently at the bottom of the speed chart in all three practice sessions, had very little good to say about his car and seemed to have thrown in the towel before climbing into the cockpit. The only thing he might have had going in his favor was his starting position since he was allowed to roll off the grid from the outside of the front row by virtue of his position in the points. He had something else going for him, however, Bob Osborne radically changed the setup on his Ford and hit precisely the right combination. Having survived the Sylvania 300 with a third-place finish, he shares the point lead with Jimmie Johnson and should have sole possession of it following the Camping World RV 400. Edwards' last four efforts at Dover have ended in a victory, two seconds and a third.

If Edwards stumbles at all, last week's winner Biffle should be able to grab the point's lead. He has been right on the bumper of the No. 99 in the last two Dover races, finishing second there last fall and third this spring, but he has been better, longer. Dating back to a victory in spring 2005, Biffle has a worst finish of only 13th and that is his only result outside the top 10 in his last seven efforts on this concrete high-banked track. His average finish of 5.4 during that span makes him an easy choice this week.

The third contender for the top spot certainly cannot be ignored, but Johnson is more likely to contend for a top-five than the victory. This track has certainly been kind to him in the past; he won both events in his rookie season and tacked on another victory in fall 2005, but he has not had a top-five since. In his last five attempts at Dover, he has finished between sixth and 15th, which might make him a driver to avoid at his salary cap level if not for the momentum he brings into the weekend. Johnson won back-to-back races at the end of the regular season at Fontana and Richmond before finishing second last week.

Dark Horses

Dover has been described as Bristol on steroids and drivers who run well on one typically do well on the other. Jeff Gordon can be offered as proof and he has more victories on the concrete high-banked tracks than any other active driver. Four of his nine high-banked wins came at Dover and with his sponsor DuPont headquartered just up the road, he tends to put his best foot forward on this track. Gordon is still a long shot to record his first victory of the season -- before we go out on a limb and predict that result, he is going to have to threaten to win one first -- but he should be an easy pick for a top-five. His last two efforts at Bristol and Dover ended in precisely fifth, which gives him momentum for the weekend.

Kenseth cannot afford another bad run and he is no doubt pleased he will be returning to Dover. Four of his last five races on this track have ended in top-10s and he even has a victory in the spring of 2006. Last week, he was the innocent bystander in a five-car crash triggered by five-wide racing and those circumstances were bizarre enough not to hold the result against him from a strength standpoint. One stat that may give you pause -- and that causes him to be a dark horse instead of a favorite -- is that Kenseth has finished in the 30s in four of his last five fall efforts at Dover, including this race last year.

Martin Truex Jr. is becoming a perennial dark horse and Dover is no exception. He earned his first career victory at Dover last spring, and while that is his only top-five on this tricky track, he has swept the top 15 in his last four starts. Truex remains an affordable option and may be one of the best mid-cap drivers in the game.

Parked

Dover was once Tony Stewart's best track. His first 13 attempts there ended in a sweep of the top 15 and he won both events in 2000. In 2005, he started to soften a little and finished 18th in the fall, but the worst was still to come. The following season, he was forced to call for relief from Ricky Rudd while he was healing from crash-induced injuries and the tandem finished only 25th. Since then, Stewart has crashed and failed to finish three of his last four Dover races and even though he has a top-10 in this event last year, he was one lap off the pace.

Fantasy owners may also want to save Kevin Harvick for another week. During his 15-race Dover career, he has two top-fives and five top-10s, but none of those have come in his last four attempts. Last year, he finished 20th in both events and those modest results are book-ended by a disappointing pair of 30-somethings. The No. 29 will be a better value later in the season, so fantasy owners can afford to be patient.