After one week, the early Chase advantage goes to ...

1. After Round 1 of the Chase, does anyone have an advantage? Is Carl Edwards now the favorite? And how big of a hole does Kyle Busch have to dig himself out of?

Dave Rodman: I'm into beating dead horses these days, since I wrote about it the other day. Look at what Johnson and Edwards did to Busch's erstwhile advantage in two races. He is not only nowhere near out -- he's fired up! And we know a fired-up Kyle Busch is damned good viewing.

Bill Kimm: I wouldn't say Carl is the favorite, but he's definitely one of a couple of drivers who are safe bets. As for Busch, he has a 74-point hole to climb out of -- not impossible, but not likely, either.

David Caraviello: I've always thought this was Kyle's championship to lose, and that somebody had to get past him before anybody else could be considered the favorite. Dover looms huge -- if the No. 18 doesn't rebound, the picture may have changed.

Bill Kimm: It's gut-check time for Busch and the 18 team. Sunday we find out if Kyle is ready and mature enough to be the champion.

David Caraviello: But if I had to pick somebody right now, based on where they are coming out of Loudon -- which is ridiculous, of course, given that it's just one race -- I'd go with Johnson. They've been here before. They know how to win this.

Dave Rodman: Of course it's a race-by-race situation now. Matt Kenseth, even, is not out of it, though he's more looking at a top five at best. But each opportunity that goes by the board strengthens the leaders and weakens the Chasers.

Bill Kimm: Come on, Dave. You can't look me in the eye and say at 177 points back Kenseth can still win this thing. No way.

David Caraviello: No one is out of it yet. Johnson was like 180 points back after Talladega two years ago and still won it. Anything can happen.

Bill Kimm: Kenseth is not Jimmie Johnson!

David Caraviello: Kimm, I realize you're a young whippersnapper, but Kenseth is the original Mr. Consistency. If you don't think he can rip off nine consecutive top-10s, you're kidding yourself.

Dave Rodman: Very difficult, but possible. Highly unlikely, but we've seen crazy stuff happen. But again, as we've said right along, this is now the best of the best -- eight in the Chase finished in the top 10 at New Hampshire -- so to leapfrog all those bodies probably ain't gonna happen. But he could get back to the top five. I still love the way Matt continues to proclaim "our cars aren't very good" and yet he continues to notch up the finishes. You gotta love the silent assassin.

Bill Kimm: Caraviello, Matt doesn't have the killer mentality to win the Chase 177 points down. Jimmie Johnson put together a string of five consecutive top-two finishes that season to win the title. No way Kenseth even comes close to that.

David Caraviello: Too bad this isn't last week, when we could summon Kenseth from the green room to refute Mr. Kimm.

Bill Kimm: Bring him on. I think he would agree with me that he isn't a threat.

Dave Rodman: I'd agree that the teams that have shown the ability to do that are limited this season. Johnson's, of course, based on past and present history, and the Busch and Edwards crews from this season.

David Caraviello: Hey, we get through Kansas and he's still buried, I might agree with you. But nobody is out of this yet. Crazy things have happened in this deal.

Bill Kimm: Put the astrick by Kenseth's name -- * = eliminated.

David Caraviello: When I find out what an "astrick" is, I will. An asterisk, you mean?

Bill Kimm: Spelling was never my strong suit.

Dave Rodman: Race-by-race the odds are gonna change. Matt is good at Dover, so I see a comeback brewing.

Bill Kimm: I love you guys and your positive vibes right now. Delusional, but I like it! You know who is good at Dover -- Carl Edwards. This could be a huge week for him.

David Caraviello: And as for Busch, it's important to remember that what happened last week really wasn't a result of setup or driver. They had a freakish part break, and everything spiraled from there. That was no indication of how strong they really are.

Dave Rodman: But as I also said the other day -- you gotta like a system that puts 11 guys well and truly in the mix right now. I got prematurely called to a little medical procedure the other day before I could do the math, but someone did, and back in the day, a 103-point margin at this point has only been overtaken four times. I'll take the Chase format over that 11 years out of 10. Of course, I forgot to mention that under the previous system, Busch would have a 103-point edge right now.

David Caraviello: But man, to work seven months toward this and have it all basically wiped out in one day ... that's brutal. That's borderline unfair.

Bill Kimm: Kyle is by no means out of it, but again, it comes down to maturity. Can he overcome adversity? He hasn't had to do it really this season, so this is huge for him.

Dave Rodman: Dover will be a critical statement of how the JGR 18 will handle the Chase, and the current turn of events -- since they won there in June. I'd say they'll be tight and tough.

David Caraviello: But still, if you had to pick somebody right now, who is it?

Bill Kimm: It's the safe pick, but Jimmie.

David Caraviello: Yeah. Can't argue with that.

Dave Rodman: Jimmie Johnson. I wrote more than a year ago, I think, that more than anyone else -- Gordon, Stewart, anyone -- he had the best chance to rip off titles, en masse (Rodman: With Johnson, expect more). I haven't changed that opinion. He is the chief threat to The King's record, which was so ably tied by Big E. (Continued)