Chasers should dominate your NHMS fantasy roster

Let's try this again: Joey Logano is scheduled to make his Sprint Cup debut at New Hampshire, but will he be as strong as predicted last week?

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is known as the Magic Mile, and for one driver it will be precisely that. Chances are good that the winning car is going to be driven by one of the Chasers. During the four-year history of this format, playoff contending racers have accounted for 72.5 percent of the 40 victories and last year all but a single race was won by someone chasing the Sprint Cup.

Standings

Tiebreaker is best finishes beyond race victories

Pos.	Driver	Points
1.	Kyle Busch	5,080
2.	Carl Edwards	5,050
3.	Jimmie Johnson	5,040
4.	Dale Earnhardt Jr.	5,010
5.	Clint Bowyer	5,010
6.	Denny Hamlin	5,010
7.	Jeff Burton	5,010
8.	Tony Stewart	5,000
9.	Greg Biffle	5,000
10.	Jeff Gordon	5,000
11.	Kevin Harvick	5,000
12.	Matt Kenseth	5,000

• Store: New Chase arrivals

The one dissenting driver in 2007 deserves mention for two reasons: his victory did not come without controversy and he's part of the 2008 Chase. With rain and darkness plaguing last year's Banquet 400 at Kansas Speedway, Greg Biffle ran out of gas on the final yellow flag lap of a shortened event and coasted across the line fourth -- and in the grass at that. NASCAR awarded him the victory since cars are not allowed to advance their position under caution, but Chase contender Clint Bowyer actually crossed the finish line first.

Biffle not only won that singular race last year, but he also took the season finale in 2006 when he was out of contention for the Championship. Tony Stewart was the ultimate spoiler who won three events that year and he is also among the Chasers in 2008. That leaves only Brian Vickers -- who won the 2006 Talladega Superspeedway fall race while he was not in Chase contention -- and Kasey Kahne?who won at Lowe's Motor Speedway that same season while he was in the playoffs -- as recent Chase race winners locked out of this season's hunt.

Of course fantasy owners still have 12 solid options on any given week, which equates to about 28 percent of the field, so there is still plenty of data to sift.

The Favorites

Short, flat courses are rhythm tracks. New Hampshire, Phoenix and Martinsville all have similar characteristics and drivers who excel on one typical run well on the others. There are four racers who stand head and shoulders above the rest when the series rolls onto this track type and three of them have swept the top 15 during the past two years. In fact, these three drivers nearly swept the top 15 in 2006 as well.

Jimmie Johnson is a must for your roster this week. He is great on nearly every Chase track, which partly explains his back-to-back championships, but he is absolute gold on the short, flat tracks. Dating back to the start of the 2006 season, he has amassed five victories, 10 top-fives and 14 top-10s in 15 starts. The only time he failed to finish in the top-10 was at New Hampshire in 2006 when he cut a tire and slammed the wall, but that did not come from a lack of strength, which he demonstrated by winning that season's Cup championship. He enters the weekend with momentum in the form of back-to-back victories at Fontana and Richmond. Last year he was able to earn four consecutive wins during the Chase, so a third consecutive this week should be no problem.

Did last week's top-10 at Richmond break Jeff Gordon out of his funk? It's hard to know, but it is equally difficult not to call him a favorite this week. He has a perfect record of top-15s during the last three seasons and an average of 5.7 on this track type during that span. In fact, he has finished worse that 15th only once since the beginning of 2004 and that was caused by a mechanical failure when his brakes went away late in the 2005 New England 300. Still not convinced? During his career on the three short, flat tracks of New Hampshire, Phoenix and Martinsville, he has accumulated 11 victories, 39 top-fives and 64 top-15s in 77 starts compared to only seven results of 25th or worse and he's failed to finish a race on these tracks only three times.

Tony Stewart remains a great value this week even though a victory will probably still elude him. He is the third driver to sweep the top 15 during the past two years and has only one finish outside that mark on this track type since the summer of 2005. The clock is ticking and Stewart has only 10 more opportunities to win in the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 before he moves to a team that will probably have less power under the hood and that sense of urgency will propel him to a strong finish. If he continues to run second or third, he'll earn a lot of points, but his frustration is threatening to boil over and affect the team. Four weeks ago, teammate Denny Hamlin lashed out at his crew for their blown engine and 39th-place finish at Michigan and then went on to score three consecutive third-place results, so a little invective is not critical.

That same Hamlin rounds out this week's favorites. He failed to sweep the top 15 during the last two years by a single position when he crossed under the checkers 16th at Phoenix last fall. He made up for that by winning in his next opportunity on this track type at Martinsville this spring. He also won at New Hampshire in 2007, which came at the tail end of a six-race top-five streak during which he averaged a result of 2.7. Hamlin is a flat track master who cannot be ignored.

Dark Horses

Logano will make his debut this week, regardless of what Mother Nature has to say about the situation. At Richmond, he was entered in a brand new team with absolutely no owner points and despite posting one of the fastest single laps in practice there and sitting on the top of the average speed chart, he was forced to miss the Chevy Rock & Roll 400. This week, he is in the No. 96 Hall of Fame Racing Toyota that is high enough in the points to make the show even if it rains. Missing the Sylvania 300 on time is inconceivable. Logano's odds of a top-10 are lower this week than at Richmond because of the struggles at HOF, but not by as much as one would imagine. For all intents and purposes, this is going to be a fourth Gibbs' car -- complete with Home Depot sponsorship -- and even if he misses the top 10, his salary cap will make him worth his 18-year-old weight in gold.

This summer, the top-seven finishers inherited their position by staying on track when a rain storm abbreviated the Lenox Industrial Tools 301 and Reed Sorenson's sixth-place finish could easily be discounted. To dismiss it out of hand, however, would be a mistake, because the driver of the No. 41 has been solid on this track. His worst finish in five starts has been 26th, which might not excite most fantasy owners, but he is typically stronger in the fall. His first two summer attempts ended in a 24th and 26th, while his two fall events ended in 17th and 14th, suggesting that a top-15 might be in the cards without too much strain.

Martin Truex Jr. was another driver who benefited from this summer's rainstorm to finish fourth, but he deserves a second look based on his sweep of the top five at New Hampshire last season. It took a little while to get the hang of this track, but even while he was learning where the groove was located, he wasn't all that bad with an 18th in his first attempt and a 22nd during the fall of his rookie season. Last summer, he finished third behind two of our favorites Hamlin and Gordon, so that puts him in rare company.