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There are 14 races left in this 2008 Nationwide Series season, but we could possibly know who the champion will be when the checkered flag flies Saturday in the Kroger 200 at O'Reilly Raceway Park (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
No track on the schedule is as clairvoyant in determining the season champ as ORP has been the past decade. In seven of the past 11 seasons, the winner at ORP has gone on to win the series title that same season.
| Year | ORP Winner | Season Champion | ORP Winner Final Rank | Champion's ORP Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | Randy LaJoie | Randy LaJoie | 1 | 1 |
| 1998 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 1 | 1 |
| 1999 | Jason Keller | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 8 | 5 |
| 2000 | Ron Hornaday | Jeff Green | 5 | 3 |
| 2001 | Kevin Harvick | Kevin Harvick | 1 | 1 |
| 2002 | Greg Biffle | Greg Biffle | 1 | 1 |
| 2003 | Brian Vickers | Brian Vickers | 1 | 1 |
| 2004 | Kyle Busch | Martin Truex Jr. | 2 | 4 |
| 2005 | Martin Truex Jr. | Martin Truex Jr. | 1 | 1 |
| 2006 | Kevin Harvick | Kevin Harvick | 1 | 1 |
| 2007 | Jason Leffler | Carl Edwards | 3 | 4 |
Not only did seven of the past 11 O'Reilly winners go on to the title, but of the four that didn't, three of them finished in the top five at the end of the season with Jason Keller's eighth in 1999 the worst points finish of ORP winners.
On top of that, all 11 series champs had at least a fifth-place finish at ORP that same season. If history holds, the championship picture should clear up with a look at the top five Saturday night.
Clint Bowyer is the current points leader, followed by Brad Keselowski, Carl Edwards, David Reutimann and David Ragan. Interestingly, O'Reilly hasn't been kind to any of them.
| Driver | Races | Wins | Top-5s | Top-10s | Poles | Laps Led | Avg. Start | Avg. Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Keselowski | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15.0 | 10.0 |
| Carl Edwards | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20.3 | 11.3 |
| David Ragan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 18.0 |
| David Reutimann | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17.5 | 19.5 |
| Clint Bowyer | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 8.3 | 19.7 |
Among the current top five in points, none of them have a win at O'Reilly and all average a finish outside the top 10.
Keselowski and Ragan have raced at the .686-mile Indiana track, finishing 10th and 18th, respectively in 2007. Reutimann was awful in his first visit to ORP, starting 29th and finishing 36th, two laps down, in 2006. But last year was a complete 180, finishing third after starting sixth.
Edwards and Bowyer have both raced at the track three times and both have had one finish in which to be proud. Bowyer finished second in 2005, but that is sandwiched between finishes of 17th in 2004 and 40th in 2006. Edwards, on the other hand, has improved each race. In 2005 he finished 20th followed by a 10th in 2006 and a fourth-place finish last season.
This could be a perfect opportunity for some on the fringe of the title to really make up some ground on the leaders. Mike Bliss, Kyle Busch, Mike Wallace, David Stremme, Jason Keller and Jason Leffler are ranked sixth through 11th in the point standings, respectively, and have much better stats at O'Reilly than the current top five.
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| Year | Winner |   | Year | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 | Morgan Shepherd |   | 1995 | Jason Keller |
| 1983 | Tommy Houston |   | 1996 | Randy LaJoie |
| 1984 | Morgan Shepherd |   | 1997 | Randy LaJoie |
| 1985 | Jimmy Hensley |   | 1998 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
| 1986 | Butch Miller |   | 1999 | Jason Keller |
| 1987 | Larry Pearson |   | 2000 | Ron Hornaday |
| 1988 | Morgan Shepherd |   | 2001 | Kevin Harvick |
| 1989 | Michael Waltrip |   | 2002 | Greg Biffle |
| 1990 | Steve Grissom |   | 2003 | Brian Vickers |
| 1991 | Bobby Labonte |   | 2004 | Kyle Busch |
| 1992 | Joe Nemechek |   | 2005 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 1993 | Tracy Leslie |   | 2006 | Kevin Harvick |
| 1994 | Mike Wallace |   | 2007 | Jason Leffler |
| Pos. | +/- | Driver | Points | Behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | -- | Clint Bowyer | 3107 | Leader |
| 2. | -- | Brad Keselowski | 2937 | -170 |
| 3. | +1 | Carl Edwards | 2906 | -201 |
| 4. | -1 | David Reutimann | 2841 | -266 |
| 5. | +1 | David Ragan | 2747 | -360 |
| 6. | +1 | Mike Bliss | 2673 | -434 |
| 7. | -2 | Kyle Busch | 2633 | -474 |
| 8. | -- | Mike Wallace | 2506 | -601 |
| 9. | -- | David Stremme | 2463 | -644 |
| 10. | -- | Jason Keller | 2443 | -664 |